A tiny 1/3 pot donk bet on a J53r board? It was like J9 every time. These tiny little donk bets were almost universally naive players with a weak top pair asking “Where am I at?” As soon as they get called (let alone raised), they got a sinking feeling in their stomach because they “knew” they were beat. Then it was a simple matter of when do I put in that bet that will allow them to fold. Do I raise the flop, do I wait for a check on the turn? Either way I would find my time and get the fold. It actually left me with the question of what do I do when I had an actual value hand since getting a fold was so common that getting value was the problem.
Over the last several months though, I have seen these donk bets changing. Every now and then I used to find that someone had made one of these tiny donk bets with a flush draw or a straight draw. Comrade Vape, Kat and I would discuss this. They had been seeing it too. I think we were all hoping it would go away. This donk bet was such a great bet-sizing tell that I did not want it to go away. Recently not only were these players making these bets with draws (and, of course, weak top pair) but now I was seeing these players showing up with top two pair. That is a complete disaster when I run into those nuttier hands.
Last night was the last two straws. At the Wynn I found a guy leading with a set. He even bet the turn “same bet” to really confirm my read that he was weak by adding this second bet-sizing tell. When I bricked whatever draw I was on and he checked the river I fired into this double bet-size tell that had served me so well in the past. He tanks with the third nuts and finally calls. A naive player for sure. But, there he was and nicely doubled up.
